A Change of Guard

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Tuesday 16 September 2014

China’s military spending: is there a new arms race?


A 12% increase in China’s military spending may sound muscular: but as a proportion to GDP it has remained constant since 2000.AAP/EPA/ADRIAN BRADSHAW

As the world’s second largest military power, China’s announcement of a 12% increase in its military budget has elicited grumbles from Taipei, Tokyo and Washington. But what does this increase signal regarding China’s intentions, and how does it affect the balance of power in the Western Pacific?
China’s military strength over the last decade has been characterised by modernisation and double digit growth. It includes the development of military flagship programs such as its first aircraft carrier and anti-ship hypersonic missiles that can theoretically breach current generation US naval defences.
Moreover the estimated US$132 billion budget probably understates total defence spending since it leaves out many items, including procurement. The true budget is often estimated at almost double the official figures.
The announcement also comes against a background of China’s seemingly uncompromising claims of sovereignty over the whole of the South China Sea and the heightened tensions with Japan over the East China Sea. Likewise the United States has committed to its “pivot” (or rebalance) to Asia, and aims to have 60% of US naval capacity located in the Pacific by 2020. Other major players such as Japan and India are strengthening their defence ties and Japan has also recently announced its own increases in it military budget.
China points out, correctly, that its $US132 billion defence budget is still well below the USA’s level of $527 billion. Nevertheless this comparison, based on market exchange rates, probably understates China’s relative position. Comparing expenditures based on estimates of the actual purchasing power of each currency in its own country suggests that China’s real spending is closer to 70-80% of the United States. Moreover the USA’s budget is declining, and its military is globally stretched.
So is there a new arms race in Asia?

Possibly. But there there is some cause for a more sanguine interpretation of these numbers.
The first thing to note is that this year’s increase in China’s nominal spending is pretty much the same as last year’s increase and, in fact, smaller than the average annual rate of increase since about 2000, of 15%. So, importantly, the defence spending increase is not an acceleration. Rather it is simply “business as usual”.
Now double digit growth may not sound like “business as usual”, but remember this is China. In China just about everything – roads, cars, steel, guns and butter - has double digit growth.
To see this we only need to look at China’s military spending as a fraction of its total economic spending, measured by GDP, which has been almost constant since 2000. This reveals a much less hawkish picture.
Moreover China’s level of spending, even allowing for under-reporting, represents only about 2% of its GDP. This is approximately the world average (1.9%). Further it is is less than half that of the United State’s relative military spending, which exceeds 4% of GDP. In terms of arms races both of these numbers are dwarfed by the 20% of GDP spent by the Soviet Union in the 1970s - so in these terms it doesn’t look like an arms race.
Thus China’s commitment of economic resources to its military is remarkably average. And the double digit growth in China’s military budget is not a reflection of “increased militarisation”, but simply a result of its rapid economic growth. This allows it to increase its spending in real terms without any additional stress on the economy.
So as China grows, its potential military capacity has grown commensurately. This is not to deny China’s rise as a military power. But importantly, at this stage at least, there is no sign of an escalation in spending, or an increased commitment to military ambitions.
A growth rate of 12% would be a lot for the USA’s, Japan’s or Australia’s military. But in China, at the moment, it’s pretty much par for the course.

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agreed with you Drgunzet and you have too look further on European people too who lived in greatly suffering on it own land the nature doesn't favor on all living creatures. ..it's..too 
hot. .too cold and too many hurricanes. 
...etc.right? if i am not wrong the land in USA 
in Europe. ...its doesn't have fertilizers and 
very hard to growth , crop plant and .raising animal..etc. right? 
Now you clearly see yourself how hard to lived
in your world ... . right. ? Aren't you? 
OK in such difficult conditions all creatures 
must be much biger stronger faster and 
working 
harder , am I right. ? Make it short in oder to 
survive you must be stronger and smarter or you will in perish. Right? The worse weather and bad terrain already killed those weak slow and dumb. ..Rigth. ? . It sounds like you guy are selected race by nature....but you're daily lives it seem very hardship from earlier centuries till today. ..your populations are 1/4 comparing to Asia and the world civilization all over the world was started from Asia. .Right. ? Please Drgunzet be fair to any race that you sharing in this unique world. .and Asian brains power are far greater than those whites guy in many field. Isn't that true.? Mike

Anonymous said...

Nonsense Vietnamese poster named Mike @16 September 2014 9:16 pm

Anonymous said...

This kid disagreed to everything is that inferior gene passed from his mom.?

Anonymous said...

china become reach now they spread the wing and fly .china one control the world that what china leader think by spending on military . Now China compete business all over the world and the same time they keep build more powerful weapon. and Who know when they get weapon?? I think the world will be gone in blink of eye because a lot of nuclear in the world right now. even self claim as smart MIKe and Drgunzel can't get away .

Kmenhwatt said...

DrugenZoo, is crazy talking to himself pretent to be ah Mice,in fact there is the same freakin' ip the person using Ah Mice's nick to fool people in here!..Stop pretending ah lop Gooksick had multiples personality..,!

Anonymous said...

Mike @ 9:16 pm

Blah blah blah…
Your English is shit and hard to understand.



Anonymous said...

though i'm not christian it is nevertheless interesting to see the Pope stating that world war 3 is already taking shape.

[A "piecemeal" World War III may have already begun with the current spate of crimes, massacres and destruction, Pope Francis has warned.]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/09/13/pope-urges-world-to-shed-apathy-toward-new-threats/15575343/

Anonymous said...

Now is clear a big giant Russia and china against giant NATO . I never see Russia and China want to over the world like this .May be they have some secret weapon that why they show of and stand up like this. If have no war now but it will come sooner and later but after the war peace will come for along time.

Karl [Kalonh] Chuck said...

Hello Vietnam!!!

Karl [Kalonh] Chuck said...

Ooopppps, I should say GOOD Morning Vietnam!!!

Anonymous said...

2008, the court in heaven was convene. The world receive the effects of God's judgment. 2009, the New World Order was implemented. 2014 & 2015, Four Blood Moons (Tetrad) warning signs for the nations. 2015 will end the 7th year cycle in biblical sabbatical year.

In the book of Revelation 6, the four horsemen has been released into the four corners of the world. This took place in 2008. These four horsemen I believe will come to conjunction with the Four Blood Moons. Another words, the four horsemen will find their fulfillment before the end of 2015.

Here are the the descriptions of the four horsemen:

Revelation 6 Complete Jewish Bible (CJB)

1 Next I watched as the Lamb broke the first of the seven seals, and I heard one of the four living beings say in a thundering voice, “Go!” 2 I looked, and there in front of me was a white horse; its rider had a bow and was given a crown; and he rode off as a conqueror to conquer.

3 When he broke the second seal, I heard the second living being say, “Go!” 4 Another horse went out, a red one; and its rider was given the power to take peace away from the earth and make people slaughter each other. He was given a great sword.

5 When he broke the third seal, I heard the third living being say, “Go!” I looked, and there in front of me was a black horse, and its rider held in his hand a pair of scales. 6 Then I heard what sounded like a voice from among the four living beings say, “Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages! Six pounds of barley for the same price! But don’t damage the oil or the wine!”

7 When he broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living being say, “Go!” 8 I looked, and there in front of me was a pallid, sickly-looking horse. Its rider’s name was Death, and Sh’ol followed behind him. They were given authority to kill one-quarter of the world by war, by famine, by plagues and with the wild animals of the earth.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Verse 7 - seem to implicate nuclear weapons in use.


MagogMademn

Anonymous said...

The problem for China is its private industry is still mostly low-tech. So, if Chinese military wants high-tech weapon, it will have to research and develop costly new technology. Thus the defense budget is extra high to include the R&D.

Vietnam cannot possibly win a full-scale war, thus the best bet is to win the skirmishes. With fewer but superior weapons, Vietnam can still win if there is outside help such as superior ECM and ECCM from USA. In 1979, Vietnam got outside help from Soviets with the satellite images for scouting/spying.

Anyway, from the look of it, India is joining Japan's camp to contain China. Australia already openly joined Japan and denounced China. Vietnam is being coveted by both camps China and Japan.

China is now backing off Vietnam as it realized the danger of being totally isolated. Vietnam is still bidding its neutrality to gain more strength and advantages.

In the latest news, India is stepping up support to Vietnam and openly challenges China. The funny thing is China is courting India to leave Japan's camp.

Which ever camp Vietnam finally ends up, Cambodia will end up in the same camp with Vietnam. Vietnam is Cambodia's boss. Make no mistake, you act up, Vietnam will let Thailand to punish you, then swallow you up again.

-Drgunzet-

Anonymous said...


-Drgunzet-

Vietnamese and Chinese are the same, we should be one country, we have no racial, cultural, civilization differences, if you want to say that the language is different, then Cantonese is different too compare with the so called "Chinese", if you want to say the race is different, then Miao is not Chinese, the fact is during a long historical time, Chinese and Vietnamese didn't really aware that they're different, all this China invaded Vietnam, or the so called "Vietnam culture" is derive from "Chinese culture" idea is base on a very narrow concept derive from the recent history, if you think of China as Roman empire, then Vietnam is like a colony of Roman empire which the population there is almost all coming from China, when Vietnam said that China have "invaded" Vietnam, it's like Australian said British have "invaded" Australia, it make no sense, because they themselves are all British descendent, unless they think they're invaded by their own ancestor, and when China said discriminate Vietnamese culture, it also makes no sense, because it's like French discriminate Quebec culture, how can you discriminate you own culture? Vietnamese is not local South East Asian, the real local there is Malaysian minority, the majority of Vietnamese now are the descendent of the Chinese "invader" who "invaded" Vietnam a thousand years ago, just look at the mirror, what's the different between you and us? if I walk on Vietnamese street without talking, no one will know I'm not Vietnamese, the idea that China and Vietnam is two separate civilization is a very recent idea created by the nationalism idea imported from the west, and people try to "reinterpreted history" as if that is true, but if you check Vietnamese history, half of it is so called "Chinese occupation", that's just ridiculous, if you can write a history like that, then I can do that within current Chinese border too, if I reinterpret North East China, South China, West China's history, half of them will be "Chinese occupation" too. it's simply illogical, China is not a national concept for most of the history, it's rather an culture idea which involve a long mixing process of different territory, and not a single history can claim they represent the whole Chinese civilization, because they all are influence by each other, and that include Vietnam. the fact is Viet-Nam is already a Chinese name Nam means South Viet is the name of an ethic group originated from the current Southern China. and that explain a lot the deep link between us, so the stupidest thing for Vietnam and China to do is killing each other, and even discriminate each other, we should be united and cooperate with each other, given that we actually share the same ancestor.
Come on Vietnam let join together and be in one big family like in the past.
”We still like the Viet pussies.”


Anonymous said...

12:12 pm
Dog Drgunzet,

It appears you're about to run low on German-want to be Yuon sh*ts !!!!

Anonymous said...

Agreed. The Vietnamese (Youn culture is a sub species of the Chinese race.

The Youn are all known to play the victim, but behidn the back, they are a murderous cunning sub species of the Chinese.

China should have wiped out the Youn when they had a chance. There is nomore chance now. Uncle Mo must teach the cunning Youns are lesson in the Mekong Delta.

Make All the Youn float.

Happy Days.

Anonymous said...

What?! Vietnam saved, revived, protected, invested, and owned Cambodia as a good boss, and you folks want to kill the Vietnamese, float their bodies down the Mekong as in 1970.

Do not commit such crime again. Back in the 1970s, the South Vietnamese were coward. Now a day, Vietnam is ruled by the superior North Vietnamese. You will be so crushed if you dare to murder any Vietnamese again.

The bottom line is, Khmer race is still barbaric and murderous, Vietnam must rule Cambodia for humanitarian reason and world peace.

If you folks don't like it, then improve yourselves. Prove to the world that you don't need Vietnam's overlordship.

-Drgunzet-

Anonymous said...

Vietnamese are the barbaric ones killings innocent dogs slaughtering them in a inhumane way. You viets are disgusting living of boats. Growing your own fish on them then feeding your fish with your faeces. U are foul. You have to look outside the square. Cambodia without hun sen and his cronies playing gangsta is what cambodia needs. You viets need a lesson in manners as a matter a fact eat a fat dick so u can shut that racist mouth of yours.you fob

Anonymous said...

How about letting the Vietnamese Cambodians living on the boats to own lands?

-Drgunzet-

Anonymous said...


How about send them back to shitnam in the North ?

We can pack some dog shits to go along with them.

Sincerely,
STUPID youn...

Anonymous said...

It is there choice to live on boats

Anonymous said...

17 September 2014 5:08 pm.

The Youn can live anywhere they want. But they have to live in their land, in China.

What they have been doing is polluting and eating rats shit in Cambodia and Southern Cambodia.

How do you feel if someone comes to your house and eats your dog and shit on your shit. Is it their choice to do so?

Anonymous said...

Drgunzet rephrase your question you superior being. How about letting the vietnamese cambodians living on the boats to own their land. OR did you mean this how about letting the vietnamese go back to their own land

Anonymous said...

-Drgunzet- has no feeling at all when it comes to living in someone's house or on someone's property or land. -Drgunzet- has a very rude, shows disrespects for someone who is the owners of land or property. They dare to fight or attack someone or kill someone to take their property or land. This is how the stupid Vietnamese folks think just like -Drgunzet- thinks.

Oh Gosh, what is the world the illegal Vietnamese or Yuon folks who lives on someone's or other country dare to have big mouths, manipulate and be hypocrite.

Anonymous said...

4:03 pm
Stupid Drgunzet,

How about your corps floating down the Mekong river !!!

Anonymous said...

China just swallowed the islands on the east of Vietnam. Now. It is time for China to act softly to Vietnam. Later on, spratly and paracel will be parts of China...

Anonymous said...

Khmer is at the bottom of the food chain. They love killing each other in the name of purity yet they will blame other for their actions. Always blaming.

Even KI media report 1 in every 5 Khmer men have raped/gang-raped Khmer girls. What a dirty class of people!

Anonymous said...

I don't see Vietnamese protest or do any demonstration in Cambodia. I don't see Vietnamese in Cambodia post anything things.

I do see Khmers demonstrate a lot in America. And I also see Khmers wrote comments on blogs which are engined by the Americans. And Khmer openly wrote comments in killing, murdering peaceful, innocent, unarmed defenseless civilians. Scary enough, the Khmer bragged about their style of dumping the dead bodies to be float in the river.

That's what Khmer race is known for, a killer race who like to float their victims' bodies in the river as a ritual, as an intimidation factor.

I say, let's fix the Khmer race up.

-Drgunzet-

Anonymous said...

Yeah, starting with you 11:33am. Let's rough you up real good first, okay 11:33am?

Anonymous said...

Drgunzet I guess you are either 44 or 32 years of age. If i am wrong let me know. ...Mike

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...
Drgunzet I guess you are either 44 or 32 years of age. If i am wrong let me know. ...Mike

18 September 2014 2:46 pm
----------
I am curious, why 44? Why 32? What is your basis?


-Drgunzet-

Anonymous said...

Id fix u up motherfucker. Stop saying shit. U viets are the murderers ask the champa people.

Anonymous said...

11:29 am
Stupid Drgunzet,

You're afraid to sign off with YOUR name now ?

Anonymous said...

4:04 pm
-Drgunzet-

I based on your stupidity !!! Mike