Judging from the body language, Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha got along fine with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen when they held their first bilateral talks on the sideline of the Asia-Europe Meeting in Milan last week.
It was a good familiarisation exercise ahead of Prayut's scheduled two-day official visit on October 30-31 to Cambodia - a country that has a long history of "love-hate" relations with Thailand.
This dichotomy has been used frequently in depicting the rather tempestuous ties between the neighbours. In the past three decades, the state of Thai-Cambodian ties has largely depended on the rapport between leaderships. Hun Sen's three-decade-old leadership has been central in determining the level of friendship with Thailand.
Of all the Thai leaders, former prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan (1998-1992) most enjoyed Hun Sen's personal trust. Chatichai's much-heralded policy of turning the battlefield into a market place was embraced by his Cambodian counterpart. In the process, it enabled Thailand to play a role in breaking the political impasse among conflicting Cambodian groups, leading eventually to the signing of Paris Peace Accords in 1991 that marked the official end of the Cambodian-Vietnamese War.
This time around, the right chemistry between Prayut and Hun Sen will go a long way in pushing their cooperative friendship to a new level, especially in implementing decisions delivered by the International Court of Justice at the end of last year, plus the long-standing proposal to establish a joint development area (JDA) in the Gulf of Thailand.
Following the ICJ's verdict over the Preah Vihear Temple dispute, each side has pledged to work with the other to settle their differences through peaceful means. So far, despite the lack of progress, both sides have kept the border calm and demilitarised. Above all, their bilateral ties remain "business as usual" after the power seizure in Thailand. From this vantage point, the current situation can be considered progress.
Before the two countries can begin to work out the ICJ measures, the Thai side needs time to consolidate its domestic reforms and shape up its foreign policy. Hun Sen has a good understanding of Thai politics and has learned how to deal with Thai leaders, having experienced 15 of them in all. More than any other leader in the region, Hun Sen has both contributed to and suffered from Thailand's "disconnectedness" of policies and decisions. As a result Thailand has been unable to implement a myriad of bilateral projects, small and large, which has not only deepened the level of mistrust but also hiked economic costs.
At this juncture, Hun Sen is eager to work with Prayut to build personal trust in the hope that it will lead to a breakthrough on both old (JDA) schemes and new JDA economic zones and connectivity. While Thailand's ties with other bordering countries, particularly Myanmar and Laos, have progressed and deepened in trust, its relations with Cambodia still lag behind.
After the May 22 coup, Thailand and Cambodia quickly normalised their relations and turned around their fragile relationship. At Hun Sen's direction, the July visit by Cambodian military top brass, including Hun Sen's son Lt Gen Hun Maneth, was a good confidence-building move aimed at long-term engagement with the new military government in Bangkok. Meanwhile Prayut's quick and effective response to the exodus of Cambodian migrant workers won him plaudits in Phnom Penh.
However, to build a stable and productive partnership from relations long marred by historical and leadership feuds, both sides need to re-examine their experience prior to 2001, when their ties were not under the influence of groups of vested interests.
For instance, the maritime-border memorandum of understanding signed in 2001 was problematic and continues to be a source of mistrust on both sides. Yet to be resolved are Gulf of Thailand territory disputes arising from differing interpretations of the 1907 France-Siam treaty, including over the strategic Koh Krut. Without resolution here, implementation of the longstanding JDA plan for the Gulf will remain elusive.
It is an open secret that both countries want an agreement quickly over the Gulf. Energy-hungry Thailand needs an additional source by the end of this decade while Cambodia requires an injection of capital to stimulate its slowing economy. Stakes are high on both sides. Experience from the recent Preah Vihear case at the ICJ should provide valuable lessons that adherence to international rules and transparency are crucial in building bilateral frameworks for successful future cooperation.
When Prayut meets Hun Sen in Phnom Penh next week, they will be hoping that from now on the two countries can maximise their potential and fully focus on economic cooperation, while also undertaking a more collaborative approach to integration with the broader Asean community.
1 comment:
They are both same totalitarian regime. they both use force , barbarism tactic to intimidate , suppress their own people . Dictators of both countries Khmer and Thai will joint hands and help each others to strengthen their power grip to oppress against Khmer and Thai democratic groups , prevent them to get up . They both use strong hand, create more new laws and dictatorship tactic ,to torture,degrade their opponents to the ground for his political survival .
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